Connolly, Fimian to Battle Over Seat in Congress

Burke is at the center of a battle for a highly coveted seat for Virginia's 11th District in the U.S. Congress this year, with both parties claiming the seat is key to keeping or gaining control of the House of Representatives.

The placement of the 11th District in traditionally Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia makes it a particularly precarious seat; one that both parties seem to think is key. For Republicans, winning back the 11th District has symbolic nature as well. Former U.S. Congressman Tom Davis held the seat for 14 years, despite the tendency of Fairfax County to lean left. Davis predicted to Politico recently, "If [Republicans] take my seat [VA-11], they'll take the House."

Terry McAuliffe, a prominent Democratic leader and the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told the Mount Vernon Voice in a July 28 article that he doesn't think Democrats will lose control of the U.S. House and the Senate in the November elections, but if a good candidate such as Connolly loses his seat, "We will lose the house."

Incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly, the former head of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors, is again facing Republican contender Keith Fimian for the 11th District seat. The last time Connolly and Fimian met head to head, Connolly won with 55 percent of the vote. Fimian raked in only 43 percent. However, since that time, the political climate has changed drastically.

In 2008, Connolly's win of the 11th District was part of a nationwide Democratic trend spurred by the fierce battle for the office of the President. The Democrats gained 21 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. In Virginia, former governor Mark Warner won his seat in the U.S. Senate with 65 percent of the vote, trouncing Republican candidate Jim Gilmore, also a former Virginia governor. Two other Republican incumbents in the U.S. House, Rep. Thelma Drake of the 2nd district and Rep. Virgil Goode of the 5th District lost their seats to Democratic challengers.

By this year, however, things had changed.

When President Obama took office in 2009, he had a 68 percent approval rating. Now, the Gallup Daily poll puts his approval rating at 43 percent, the lowest since he was elected. More dramatically, the Gallup Daily poll puts the approval rating for Congress at near historic lows, with recent surveys indicating as few as 19 percent of Americans approve of the overall job Congress is doing, down from 30 percent in 2009. Though Congress' ratings are traditionally low, Gallup has recorded an average of 36 percent approval rating since beginning the measure in 1974.  This is the lowest rating seen in any midterm presidential year in the lifetime of the poll.

In addition, the gap between approval ratings of surveyed people by party has grown, with 38 percent of Democrats approving of the job Congress is doing while only 5 percent of Republicans approve. Only about 14 percent of Independents approve of the job Congress is doing.

The continuing recession is one of the key reasons for this disapproval, with the majority of voters citing unemployment as their top concern. In the past two years, backlash against several Federal laws addressing the economy and healthcare has led to the rise of the Tea Party movement and the resurgence of many conservative ideals.

Across the country, 80 seats are up for grabs, with 75 of these currently held by Democrats. Republicans would need a 39-seat gain to take back control of the House of Representatives. The last time that many district switched parties, in 1994, Republicans won 53 Democratic-held seats. Incidentally, 1994 was the last time a mid-year election for the first term of a Democratic president occurred. At that time, President Bill Clinton had a 46 percent approval rating, higher than Obama's currently.